5 tips for uncovering the assumptions that make or break your work

Nahtahna Cabanes
Mar 30
3 min read

Updated: Mar 31

I have been trying to write this blog for three months. A blog is a funny thing. I enjoy the writing piece. I am so incredibly tickled that people read it and like it (shout out to Tessa for your kind words). But I hate the pressure of having to turn out something brilliant and witty on a schedule (assuming that I even get close to brilliant or witty).

So please accept my apologies as I pick up where I left off months ago….

In my last blog I spoke about why nonprofits need an articulated theory of change. I have now spent the greater part of three months working with an incredible nonprofit to articulate theirs.

And I’m reminded that to articulate one well takes time and true thoughtfulness. I am also reminded that identifying assumptions within a theory of change is really the “make-it or break-it” of mission success.

Let me explain with a well (pun-intended)-known example:

Since 2006 charity:water has been bringing clean drinking water to people in “under-resourced” countries. According to their website they have served over 20 million individuals with close to 200,000 water projects. They get a four-star rating on Charity Navigator and are widely lauded for their innovative and transparent fundraising approach.

Sounds impressive.

Here's the rub: a study in 2009 by the International Institute for Environment and Development found that close to 60% of the wells constructed by water project NGOs like charity:water were not being used and communities were still drinking contaminated drinking water.

So what was going wrong?

Answer: the assumption was faulty.

Charity:water acted as though once a well was built, water would be permanently accessible. However, the agency failed to think through what may be needed for sustained water usage. They did not think through who would be tasked with fixing broken wells. And they didn’t consider the structural realities of communities receiving support.

To their credit, since discovering this problem, they have adjusted their programming to alert them when wells are not functioning and they have modified their messaging to avoid overpromising results.

But such a misstep offers a great example of how even large, popular nonprofits can fail in their mission if their assumptions are faulty.

Plainly stated, if your assumptions are wrong, the house you are trying to build will be a house of cards that eventually falls apart.

Identifying accurate assumptions is such an important component to a well-designed theory of change, because it is the part of your theory of change that must be true in order for your model to work.

The challenge is that assumptions are incredibly hard to identify because they are so deeply rooted in our bias.

We don’t know what we don’t know as the saying goes.

The good news is there are ways to surface assumptions.

Here are 5 places to start:

1. Start by asking what must be true in order for the work to work.

What are the economic, political, environmental, and social conditions that must be in place for your theory to stand up? In this instance, challenge even the most patently obvious. For example, an environmental assumption for water projects would be that water will always be reachable despite climate conditions.

2. Invite diverse stakeholder perspectives.

We all live in our own versions of the echo chamber. Inviting feedback from individuals outside of your agency (e.g. competitors, funders, community members) may uncover opinions, beliefs, and perspectives that have not been considered.

3. Do research.

What do others say about what needs to be true in order for models like yours to work? Research will not only help uncover assumptions, it will provide evidence (or lack thereof) that your assumptions are based in tested theory.

4. Look at what the data is saying.

Do the results from the data collection reflect expected short-term and long-term outcomes? If not, there may be a flaw in the logic, a flaw that typically originates from the assumptions.

5. Don’t be afraid to adjust if your assumptions are off.

Assumptions are neither good nor bad. They are inevitable. So having faulty assumptions is not a failure, but failing to adjust once they are uncovered, is.

Being clear, honest, and skeptical about assumptions ensures a strong theory of change and a strong theory of change ensures the work is focused, logical, and effective.

At least I assume it does….

5 tips for uncovering the assumptions that make or break your work

So please accept my apologies as I pick up where I left off months ago….

In my last blog I spoke about why nonprofits need an articulated theory of change. I have now spent the greater part of three months working with an incredible nonprofit to articulate theirs.

And I’m reminded that to articulate one well takes time and true thoughtfulness. I am also reminded that identifying assumptions within a theory of change is really the “make-it or break-it” of mission success.

Let me explain with a well (pun-intended)-known example:

Sounds impressive.

Here's the rub: a study in 2009 by the International Institute for Environment and Development found that close to 60% of the wells constructed by water project NGOs like charity:water were not being used and communities were still drinking contaminated drinking water.

So what was going wrong?

Answer: the assumption was faulty.

To their credit, since discovering this problem, they have adjusted their programming to alert them when wells are not functioning and they have modified their messaging to avoid overpromising results.

But such a misstep offers a great example of how even large, popular nonprofits can fail in their mission if their assumptions are faulty.

Plainly stated, if your assumptions are wrong, the house you are trying to build will be a house of cards that eventually falls apart.

Identifying accurate assumptions is such an important component to a well-designed theory of change, because it is the part of your theory of change that must be true in order for your model to work.

The challenge is that assumptions are incredibly hard to identify because they are so deeply rooted in our bias.

We don’t know what we don’t know as the saying goes.

The good news is there are ways to surface assumptions.

Here are 5 places to start:

1. Start by asking what must be true in order for the work to work.

2. Invite diverse stakeholder perspectives.

We all live in our own versions of the echo chamber. Inviting feedback from individuals outside of your agency (e.g. competitors, funders, community members) may uncover opinions, beliefs, and perspectives that have not been considered.

3. Do research.

What do others say about what needs to be true in order for models like yours to work? Research will not only help uncover assumptions, it will provide evidence (or lack thereof) that your assumptions are based in tested theory.

4. Look at what the data is saying.

Do the results from the data collection reflect expected short-term and long-term outcomes? If not, there may be a flaw in the logic, a flaw that typically originates from the assumptions.

5. Don’t be afraid to adjust if your assumptions are off.

Assumptions are neither good nor bad. They are inevitable. So having faulty assumptions is not a failure, but failing to adjust once they are uncovered, is.

Being clear, honest, and skeptical about assumptions ensures a strong theory of change and a strong theory of change ensures the work is focused, logical, and effective.

At least I assume it does….

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